Buffett and Einhorn Downgrade Moody's 03/30/2010
Interest rate spikes, currency devaluations, too-big-to-fails, the SEC and investment theses. These are just a few topics addressed by David Einhorn, co-founder of investment firm Greenlight Capital. Remember Mr. Einhorn? He is the manager who uncovered alleged fraud at companies such as Allied Capital and Lehman Brothers. Before everyone and their brother realized these allegations were substantiated with clear and verifiable facts, the messenger was vilified. Given this backdrop, what are some of Einhorn’s opinions and trades of recent? First, he is expecting a major currency collapse and a surge in interest rates in the next 3-5 years (see footnote below). This is evidenced by his large allocation to gold and comments citing imprudent government deficits, among other examples. Regarding the SEC, Einhorn is unyielding, opining in front of Congress about the SEC’s “crooked culture and lack of enforcement.” Furthermore, he does not leave doubt regarding his thoughts about too-big-to-fail companies: “break them up.” Edward Harrison, founder of the blog Credit Writedowns, summarizes these topics in an article at Seeking Alpha. For practical investment insights, Einhorn rarely disappoints. Recently he and other investors presented Vodafone Group (UK: VOD) as being undervalued (Jan 2010). Einhorn’s thesis is based on Vodafone’s 45% stake in Verizon Wireless. Essentially, the trade is considered a “5.5% Inflation Protected Bond with Free Non-Expiring Call Options.” Market Folly summarizes the trade, including the slide below: Lastly, it may be worth the effort to conduct due diligence on Moody’s (NYSE: MCO). Buffett has been dumping shares, while Einhorn has been increasing his short position... --------------------------- Note: Einhorn’s interest rate thesis does not contradict our belief presented earlier this year regarding near-term deflation. CommentsThu, 01 Apr 2010 23:43:37 Einhorn was shorting Moody's about this time last year and Buffett recently began exiting his stake in Moody's. Fri, 02 Apr 2010 08:50:56 Columbia Journalism Review Wed, 14 Apr 2010 20:03:44 Washington Mutual (WM) Alt-A mortgage pool (aka cesspool) known as WMALT 2007-0C1. It's highlighted on Bloomberg. Mon, 19 Apr 2010 09:33:29 Security: ABACUS 2007-AC1 Dork of Cork Tue, 11 May 2010 19:16:47 The Euro is down to $1.25 and falling fast,,, maybe that is the currency collapse that einhorn is referring to Leave a Reply |