Coventry League
 
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SecondMarket provides a timeline of trades in Facebook (FB)'s common stock since April 2008.  If one applies a discount (let’s use 30% for example purposes) to account for a limited supply of shares available via SecondMarket versus a larger supply of shares otherwise available in a publicly traded market, then one could derive a "fair" value of FB in a public market (note 1).

Further, SecondMarket data from 2012 along with a January 2012 tiny venture capital round (only $9.6 million at about $31 per share) seem to have been used and publicized to anchor in a price and valuation to justify the targeted IPO price range.  Accordingly, it would be reasonable to consider this data as less reliable and an outlier. 

So, using data from the last half or last quarter of 2011 would provide a reasonable benchmark share price in which to apply a discount (or a discount range).  A back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates a share price on SecondMarket that averaged about $32.  Applying a conservative 30% discount indicates a “fair” share price of roughly $22 if supply were not as constrained as it was on SecondMarket.  Given this assessment, the investment bankers apparently earned their commission since they priced the IPO at a 72% premium to the adjusted share price calculated using SecondMarket data.

Our opinion is even at $22 per share, which implies a market capitalization of $60 billion (note 2), FB is considerably “overvalued," especially in light of the most highly valued companies depicted in the chart below and highlighted on InvestmentNews by Mark Bruno.
Regardless, to incorporate a downside valuation range, one might want to further consider the picture highlighted in the upper left above from a ZeroHedge blog title "PeakBook?" that compares search volume between Facebook and Myspace.  Or, read a post at Forbes by Mark Evans titled "Warning: Stay Away From The Facebook IPO."

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(1) Securities and Exchange Commission. 424(b)(4) Prospectus filing dated 17 May 2012. . Total Class A and Class B shares being offered in the IPO is 421,233,615 or about 20% of actual common shares outstanding as of 31 March 2012 of 2,138,085,037 and 15% of adjusted common shares outstanding after the IPO of 2,741,527,754.

(2) Total Class A and Class B common stock to be outstanding after initial public offering: 2,741,527,754 multiplied by the calculated common stock price per share of $22.

 
 
Below is an infographic highlighted by Grist.com depicting the cost of eating healthily. This can also be explained from subsidies for junk food (high calorie, low nutrition) that aid and abet the perpetuation of a health care provider complex.
                            
 
 
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Growing Inequality by Bryce Edwards
Mother Jones magazine posted an informative infographic highlighting aspects of the U.S. economy from an inequality perspective.  Viewing it in its entirety is encouraged as it includes detailed sources and complements our prior blogs regarding perception (people actually perceive little economic inequality, when in reality it is severe) and owners of Congress (reasonable interpretation: major financial institutions).

Below is one illustration from Mother Jones. It reveals people's perception about inequality and social stratification in the U.S. (click image to enlarge).  The data are attributable to professor Michael Norton of Harvard Business School and behavioral economist Dan Ariely of Duke University.

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It's the Inequality, Stupid | Mother Jones

As some might realize from the illustrations, there is a winner-take-all arena in which citizens and companies compete, with notable legal and political protections available for the winners.  To wit, companies considered too-big-to-fail and citizens in the top 1% got bigger and wealthier, respectively, since the beginning of the 2007 recession.

Notwithstanding, we are not attempting to address the factors exacerbating the economic inequality and malaise; rather; we are deferring to the opinion of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig who stated the following:

“I am convinced that the existence of too-big-to-fail financial institutions poses the greatest risk to the U.S. economy. They must be broken up. We must not allow organizations operating under the safety net to pursue high-risk activities and we cannot let large organizations put our financial system at risk."

And, if these references are not enough, then here are two more sources:
So, if we can form any lessons from the recent riots and revolutions in the past year in Greece and currently in the Middle East, one should be that social stratification and inequality can only last so long until there is a backlash from the masses to restore balance.

Or, as they say In mathematics: reversion to the mean.
 
 
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The Storming of the Bastille, 1789
The Guardian presented a concise infographic titled "Arab youth: the tipping point" regarding key factors indicating potential youth uprisings.  Two criteria are (a) percent of population comprised of youths and (b) their respective unemployment rates.  The latter are stated values.  It is likely those rates are understated, as they are in the U.S.

Based on the data, some of the ingredients exist for further youth uprisings in Northern Africa and the Middle East.  One factor not included is population density, which seems to act as a catalyst, as witnessed in the densely populated Egypt (primarily Cairo region).

So, who is most likely to be next after the revolution in Egypt

Algeria.

 
 
Neptune et les pirates
Neptune et les pirates
Since we shared an infographic about the non-alcoholic carbonated beverages industry this summer, it seems reasonable to share a graphic regarding the adult beverage of choice.  [Much obliged to CaféTerra.]    

For those near Cleveland we recommend the seasonal Christmas Ale from Great Lakes Brewing Company.  And, for those living in the Mid-Altantic, we can recommend the small-batch specials from Dogfish Head Craft Brewed Ales based in Milton, Delaware.

And, if the infographic doesn’t have enough information to help you reveal your inner nerd, then included below are links that address the psychological aspects of imbibing too much (it’s not necessarily the alcohol talking) and the history of alcoholic beverages:

  McGovern, Patrick E. Uncorking the Past: the Quest for Wine, Beer, and Other Alcoholic Beverages. Berkeley: University of California, 2009. Print.  Find at Powell's Books.

●  Carey, Benedict. "When People Drink Themselves Silly, and Why." The New York Times. 8 Mar. 2008. Web. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/04/health/04mind.html.
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The Cheshire Cat by John Tenniel, 1866
Having worked in structured finance in the caverns of Wall Street, it is known that the structured finance market of CDOs and related securities can be explained and understood in a straightforward manner.  The complexity is mostly associated with the detailed mechanics of modeling and assessing risk to counterparties and investors.

Accordingly, included is a fine infographic presented by MortgageRates that helps illustrate the very basics of the CDO market.  Hat tip to Felix Salmon.




 
 
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The Illusion of Diversity, Philip H. Howard
Assistant Professor Philip H. Howard of Michigan State University concludes that approximately 89% of beverage options are controlled by three corporations. 

Many people who haven’t been sleeping under the proverbial rock can name at least two of the three corporations.  

For those who cannot, the top three companies of U.S. soft drink sales are segmented as follows:

   (1.)  42.7%: Coca-Cola’s 25 brands and 139 varieties
   (2.)  30.8%: Pepsi’s 18 brands and 163 varieties
   (3.)  15.3%: Dr. Pepper Snapple Group’s 20 brands and 109 varieties

Rounding out the top ten companies by market share (circa 2008) are the following (see beverage digest):

  (4.)   4.7%: Cott Corp.
  (5.)   2.6%: National Beverage
  (6.)   0.8%: Hansen Natural
  (7.)   0.7%: Red Bull
  (8.)   0.4%: Big Red
  (9.)   0.4%: Rockstar
  (10.) 1.6%: Private label and other

The well-presented chart porn highlights the pseudovariety, or the illusion of diversity.

 
 
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Many people viewed some of the games of the 2010 World Cup, including the championship in which Spain defeated the Netherlands 1-0. And, just as many people who were not at the stadium wondered what was generating the continual humming, bumble-bee sound. Well, it was the vuvuzela horn, and fans took liberty to explore the entire stadium space.

From an economics perspective, the World Cup created a noticeable trickle-down effect. As you review the accompanying infographic (click image to enlarge), you will notice the large number of horns sold, which caused a large number of - you guessed it - ear plugs to be sold.

Not all have been enthusiastic about the vuvuzela horns. Already, the horns have been banned at Yankee Stadium and throughout the Southeastern Conference (SEC) of U.S. college sports, among other worldwide venues.

Given the positive economic impact attributable to vuvuzela horns, where’s the vuvuzelove?

 
 
Given health care reform has been a major topic among citizens and elected representatives over the past year, it seems appropriate to post a few links to thought provoking graphics and articles.  There are several countries for leaders to benchmark regarding implementing or reforming a health care plan.

Below is a scatter-plot presented by the blog FiveThirtyEight depicting health care spending and life expectancy (click to enlarge).

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FiveThirtyEight: Health Care and Life Expectancy

For a different perspective, National Geographic Magazine presented a linear graphic of health care expenditures and life expectancy (below):

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National Geographic Magazine: Health Care and Life Expectancy
And, lastly, the Organization of Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) presents an overview and offers an interactive visual related to health care expenditures and effectiveness, and Wikipedia includes several charts and resources for further research, including a revealing chart of U.S. health care expenditures as a percentage of GDP (below).


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Wikipedia: Health Care in the United States
 
 
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For those interested in strategy, adapting to a changing environment, consumer behavioral trends, and, well, outright mismanagement, then analyzing the newspaper and print media industry provides a real-world, in-progress case study.

Although headlines of the death of the newspaper might be an exaggeration at the moment, there is clear and present danger.  The business model of newspapers depends on advertising revenue, which comprises about 80% of its total revenue.  In 2008, advertising revenue dropped 16.5%, according to the Newspaper Association of America.  Barclays Capital projects a 22.0% decline in advertising revenue in 2009 (see Mint.com below).  Startling, but also mirroring the economic recession.

Nonetheless, organizations that will most likely survive the economic challenges and thrive will create a new business model, with digital media being more prominent.  The extinction of the traditional daily is not likely in the near term, although it will probably play a more niche role.  Similar dynamics are occurring with telephones, internet connections, software, music and movies, to name a few.

Mint.com presents a concise one-page visual of key metrics of the top 25 U.S. newspapers.  Many others have written about the struggles of print media; Slate.com highlights the strategic and mismanagement aspects of this topic.

Well, that’s all for now, as I need to check my favorite news and entertainment blogs.


mint death of the news

Budget help from Mint.com